Brazil's regulated market, one year on: what affiliates actually earned

Twelve months after the licensing regime took effect, the Brazilian iGaming market has settled into a shape that few affiliates predicted. Average CPA on sportsbook first-time depositors has fallen from a peak of R$1,100 to a steadier R$620–R$780 band, while rev share offers have narrowed by roughly four percentage points across the programmes we monitor.

The compression is not a sign of weakness. Licensed operators are simply pricing acquisition against a known tax burden instead of a speculative one, and player lifetime value has climbed as payment friction disappeared with regulated PIX rails.

For affiliates, the practical consequence is that hybrid deals now outperform pure CPA on almost every sportsbook vertical. Programmes that refuse hybrid structures in Brazil should be treated with caution: it usually signals thin margins or an unwillingness to share downstream data.

Our advice remains unchanged. Ask for cohort-level retention data before signing, insist on no negative carryover, and verify that the operator holds a federal licence rather than relying on a state-level authorisation alone.